The Ground Floor

Commercial Real Estate Chugs Along

In today's ULI's Industry Snapshot, "What's Next for Real Estate: Catch a Glimpse," discussed the latest on what lies ahead for the real estate industry during turbulent economic times. 

Joseph F. Azrack, president and chief executive officer of Citigroup Property Investors in New York City, and ULI Senior Resident Fellow Stephen Blank discussed how job growth will ultimately affect the commercial real estate market especially in the office supply market.

According to Azrack, depending on what employment rates do in the future, there is the potential for more credit problems. However, he suggested that the commercial market has not yet been affected yet. Azrack explained that we will know when the market is returning to normal because the LIBOR spreads will close up and banks will lend to private equity firms.

More information on this webcast is available at www.uli.org/webcasts

"Sidewalks are as Sexy as Hybrids"

If you missed our "Industry Insider" webinar this morning, don't panic. We'll be featuring an archive of the event on our web site.

The event discusses findings of Growing Cooler: the Evidence on Urban Development and Climate Change, a publication from ULI, such as the connection between efficient land use, reducing vehicle miles traveled, and lowering greenhouse gas emissions.

You'll hear firsthand from co-authors Reid Ewing, Research Professor at the National Center for Smart Growth, University of Maryland; and Steve Winkelman, Manager of Adaptation and Transportation at the Center for Clean Air Policy. Their online presentations,show that curbing auto dependency through walkable development is an effective way to mitigate climate change.

At Last -- the Why of the Sub-Prime Mess on Wall St.

The Wall Street sub-prime meltdown has finally been fully explained in an interview on YouTube. Only the British can explicate the unexplainable.

Five Webcasts on Tap for ULI Fall Meeting

UPDATE: All times for the webcasts are Pacific Time.

Even if you can't join us in Las Vegas next week, there is still a way to sample some of the fantastic educational opportunities at ULI's fall meeting. We'll be webcasting five sessions that cover a variety of hot topics free-of-charge. They are:

• Public/Private Partnerships: The New Underwriting Formula (Wednesday, October 24, 2:15–3:30 p.m.);
• U.S. Housing Market: Charting the Outlook for Multifamily and Single-Family Real Estate (Thursday, October 25, 9:45–11:00 a.m.);
• Mega Mixed-Use Potentials and Realities: Complexity, Investment Value, and High-Density Sustainability (Thursday, October 25, 11:15 a.m.–12:30 p.m.);
• Dueling Economists (Thursday, October 25, 3:00–4:30 p.m.); and
• Strategy Planning in an Era of Change: Lessons Learned from the Real World (Friday, October 26, 11:15 a.m.–12:30 p.m.).

Viewers of the live webcasts will have the opportunity to submit questions to the panelists during the session. The webcasts will also be archived after the meeting, and will be available for viewing from ULI's Web site. Keep your eyes here on the blog for full coverage of meeting activities, including links to the webcasts.

Pssst...Wanna Learn About the Housing Market?

The second of ULI's Spring Council Webcasts is almost upon us. At 11:15 a.m. CDT, log on to participate in the panel discussion, Now That the Roof Has Blown Off of the Housing Market . . . . Following on the Fall Meeting’s highly successful program on the housing bubble, it is now apparent the market is on a downhill slope. This panel of economists and practitioners will discuss the key impacts of the downturn. Does the published data show the severity of the decline? How much further is there to go? What will cause the market to bottom and turn around -- demographics, lower interest rates, or something else? What are the emerging differences between the new home market and the existing home market? What happens to the U.S. consumer and therefore the economy? Are there significant differences between geographies or product types? And most important -- what opportunities are emerging? Viewers of the live webcast will have the opportunity to submit questions to the moderator and panel.

REdeveloping Green Webcast About to Start

It's about time for the first of our two Spring Council Forum webcasts to kick off. The Business of REdeveloping Green will discuss rehabbed buildings with Platinum LEED ratings, using water resources as a source for heating and cooling, development of vertical neighborhoods, and the extraordinary effects of tree planting on energy efficiency. Are you, your city, your community, or your builders and managers redeveloping “green”? What percent of your energy is from renewable sources? How about waste energy, wind farms, geothermal heating and cooling? How can you be smart in choosing materials, systems, and neighborhoods to benefit from recent research and pioneering projects? Join us online at 9:45 a.m. CDT to watch and participate in this valuable workshop.

Earth Day Webcast Links Land Use and Climate Change

Earth Day is drawing near, and with all the recent buzz about climate change, it makes sense to explore the connections between land use patterns and global climate change. On Sunday, April 22, from 1:30 until 3:00 p.m., Pacific Time, New Orleans Recovery Chief and Lincoln Institute Lead Fellow on Global Warming Ed Blakely will speak on the "Global Warming Impact on Land Use Planning," at a symposium in Corona, California. The symposium will be webcast live on the Green Institute for Village Empowerment Web site. The good folks over at the SE Corporation (developers of Corona's Dos Lagos master-planned community, where the symposium will be held) alerted us to the webcast, and also tell us that Web viewers will be able to pose questions to Dr. Blakely during the Q&A section of the symposium by E-mailing their questions to ed@giveforthefuture.org.

Check out the webcast on Sunday afternoon, and then come back here to share your thoughts in the comments.

New Center Will Address Workforce Housing Problems

J. Ronald Terwilliger at Thursday's press conference.

At a press conference earlier today (the webcast is available on ULI's Web site), ULI Chairman Marilyn Taylor summed up the reason Trammell Crow Residential Chairman and CEO Ron Terwilliger is writing a $5 million check to the Institute: "The challenges for workforce housing are getting steeper, harder, and more difficult."

The extraordinary sum -- the largest individual contribution ever made to ULI -- will fund the creation of the ULI Terwilliger Center for Workforce Housing. Saying that ULI is uniquely qualified to lead this effort, due to the Institute's strong national and global presence and its private sector orientation, Terwilliger said that he hopes to get more states to pay attention to the problems faced by moderate-income families in the face of rising housing costs. He cited long commutes, isolation, disruption to family life, links between sprawl and obesity, environmental and health problems, and a disproportionate share of moderate-income families' budgets being spent on transportation costs.

Long-term Condo Outlook: Sunny

The long-term outlook for the condominium market: promising, as steady demand from baby boomers and echo boomers eats up the current oversupply and sparks a rally in that sector of the housing market. This was the consensus of ULI President Richard Rosan; David Mayhood, president of The Mayhood Company in McLean, Va.; and Robert Lang, co-director of the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech University, all of whom were featured during a condo market discussion that is being webcast by ULI. The webcast was the first of a series of discussions on topical real estate issues and trends that will be periodically webcast by the Institute.

According to Rosan, the "condomania" that spread across many urban markets in previous years was fueled by two factors -- the downtown migration of empty nesters and young professionals, and a flurry of investor activity, with the latter skewing the market. With most of the speculative buyers now gone, the market is settling back to a more sustainable level, and is poised for growth, he predicted.

Lang pointed out that the downtown condo development springing up in cities of various sizes is indicative of the rediscovery of urban cores as an appealing place to live. While he pegged early 2006 as the "beginning of the end" of the condo boom, he agreed with Rosan that the downturn is not likely to last for long. With the U.S. adding 30 million residents each decade, Lang said that population growth will "change the mix of demand" for all types of housing, including condominiums.

One full quarter of positive activity is an indicator that the market is turning the corner, Mayhood said. The full impact of aging baby boomers has yet to be felt, he noted, because those in that age group tend to "talk about it (moving) for some time before they actually move."

Lang added that the preference of baby boomers to downsize as they age will keep demand steady for condos. This demand for smaller houses will also be fed by echo boomers, who, like their empty nester parents, are attracted to the convenience of urban living, noted Rosan. "Both of these groups will want smaller houses," he said.

Lang, Rosan and Mayhood concurred that the most promising locations for condos are those near near transit hubs. "Arlington, Virginia (where new development has been concentrated along a subway corridor containing dense housing and commercial uses) will be replicated," predicted Lang. Increasingly, decisions on refocusing growth will favor concentrated, denser development, even in areas now characterized by low density and sprawling neighborhoods, he said.

The upshot of the discussion: the shift in demographics and changes in urban planning means good news for the condo market. It will be back -- sooner rather than later. Stay tuned for more insights from ULI experts, on our blog and on our webcasts.

Webcast: Ideas Battle for Title

Today at 11:15 a.m. Mountain Time, tune in for the final webcast from the fall meeting, The Battle of the Best Ideas. Five leading developers will try to wow the audience with three great real estate ideas, argue them persuasively, and then let the audience vote on which idea is the best. It's the ULI version of American Idol -- a fast and rowdy session with great insights and lots of fun.

Afterwards, discuss what you thought were the best ideas in the comments section of this post. Was the audience right? Did they miss something? If you didn't get to see the live webcast, the archived version will be available later today.