The Ground Floor

Slowly but Surely

This post was written for The Ground Floor by Robert Krueger, communications associate at the Urban Land Institute.

As credit eases and property values begin to stabilize, investors are optimistic about Europe’s commercial real estate industry in 2010.  However, investors don’t believe they can rest easy.  According to the newly released report Emerging Trends in Real Estate® Europe 2010, published this week by the Urban Land Institute (ULI) and PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC), while European real estate will see improvements during this year, there is still a ‘long, slow haul’ to recovery.

In a statement, ULI Europe Chairman Alexander Otto cautioned, “Europe’s economic recovery is underway, but it will be sluggish and uneven.”

Emerging Trends discusses the issues associated with real estate refinance debt and the worries and uncertainty over how European governments will get involved with the economic recovery.  Survey respondents noted their apprehension concerning the possibility of an abrupt withdrawal of stimulus funds by European governments.  Such actions could derail the region’s growth potential and whatever steps that has already been made. 

“This year there is a sense of cautious optimism,” said John Forbes, PWC real estate leader in Europe, Middle East and Africa. “Sentiment regarding investment prospects has stabilized and although sentiment regarding development continues to decline, it is a less dramatic fall than that witnessed last year.”
According to the report, London takes the top spot for new property acquisitions.  Among the other popular targets were Munich, Paris, Istanbul, Vienna and Hamburg.

The report’s findings are based off the responses from surveys and interviews of over 600 authoritative voices in the industry.   The sample of respondents ranges from a variety of leading investors, developers, bankers, and property managers. 

Floating Gardens Arrive in Dublin

The design for a new park for Dublin's canal has been revealed after nearly three years of planning. In 2005, the Dublin Docklands Development Authority held a two part competition to create a linear park. The competition objectives included:
• Create a linear urban park of outstanding design quality;
• Provide for additional public green amenity space in an area where there is a current shortfall;
• Provide a strategic route through the north Docklands along the canal and improve connections between adjoining areas;
• Provide facilities for active youth recreation in an area where there is a current shortfall;
• Transform the negative image of the canal to one that is positive and welcoming; and,
• Provide an attractive environment for boating activities.

The Royal Canal Linear Park, which has been designed by Paris-based architectural practice, Agence Ter, will feature floating gardens, playgrounds, pavilions, new bridges and sporting facilities. The park will provide a visually striking public amenity green space covering six hectares in the North Lotts area of the Docklands.

Agence Ter's design blurs the separation between bank and canal, and considers the body of the park as a whole, treating it as a single space stretching from North Strand Road to the River Liffey. It incorporates a series of gardens for a variety of native and exotic plants and trees suited to either wet or dry conditions interspersed with areas for activities -- a skate park, a children’s playground, a kayak center, and multi-sport platforms, and for contemplation/relaxation such as seating areas, water basins, and café pavilions.

One of the main features of the Royal Canal Linear Park will be the floating gardens. While they will be moored to the canal banks, the gardens can vary in placement, arrangement or density according to the seasons. This flexibility will allow the project to adapt to changing urban requirements.
In an article in the Irish Times, Olivier Philippe, who set up Agence Ter with two other landscape designers in 1986, commented, "We decided to consider the area as a whole by putting floating gardens into the water and putting water into the banks."

Another significant element will be the park's pavilions, which will be semi-transparent boxes that change in opacity or transparency according to the shifting position of the viewer. From the exterior, passers-by will be able to get a feel for the atmosphere inside, while those in the interior can view the gardens.

"When you walk along the Liffey you are never close to the water -- which is understandable because of the tide and the boats -- but the canal is a very quiet place so the idea is to have floating gardens very low in the water,” Philippe said in the Irish Times article.

Construction of phase one is due to begin in January 2009 and finish in 2010. It will fit in around other construction in the area, including canal excavation and restoration at Spencer Dock, the National Conference Centre, a Luas canal bridge by Future Systems, and the Calatrava bridge on the Liffey, due to finish at the end of next year.

Germany Top Investment Choice

Germany is now the top investment destination in western Europe, according to Ernst & Young’s Location Germany 2008: Germany and Europe – International Manager Assessment report.

Conduction with over 800 international business decision makers, Germany was identified for its strength in logistics in addition to hosting a diverse and highly qualified range of small- to medium-sized logistics service providers. Differentiated labor costs, a highly flexible labor force, and a robust commercial property market -- particularly in the new federal states - proved to be the decisive factors in Germany retaining its logistics crown.

One in four foreign investors surveyed plan to invest in Germany; with more than one-third of those already investing in Germany planning follow-up investments, said the author of the report, Peter Englisch. Thirty percent of companies questioned believe that Germany has become an even more attractive investment destination.

The outlook for Germany's future is likewise overwhelmingly positively perceived; with 35 percent of the decision makers questioned predicting Germany's attractiveness to increase in the coming years.

Germany's placing can be attributed to its achievements in infrastructure. According to the report, Germany enjoys the densest and best-developed traffic and communications infrastructures in the whole of Europe: it is possible to reach around 200 million consumers across Europe within 24 hours by rail or road freight transportation from Berlin.

This year's findings provide concrete proof of Germany's growing attractiveness as an investment location, according to Englisch. "Our findings show that Germany continues to make significant gains as an attractive inward investment destination. International investors are attracted to the country's reputation as an innovative power with a highly-qualified and flexible labor pool.”

Germany's longstanding reputation as a seat of innovative excellence has been further bolstered by the study's findings. The European country is second only to the U.S. in terms of attractiveness as an R&D location, and counts as the third most innovative country in the world behind the USA and China respectively.

“World-beating logistics and a world-class traffic and communications infrastructure add further incentive to companies keen to move into European markets," he added.

Retail Centers Strong in Europe

Cushman & Wakefield (C&W) reported that continued strength in shopping center space will continue with 8.2 million square meters of new space completed across Europe in a total of 320 new centers and 54 extensions to existing centers. More than 11 million square meters are expected to open this year, and equally in 2009, to bring the total amount of shopping center space in Europe to 134 million square meters by the end of 2009 -- up from the current figure of almost 112 million square meters, C&W says.

A large number of the total new space will open in Central and Eastern Europe, with mature markets such as the U.K. and France leading the way, although some of the U.K. projects have been postponed. Spain and Italy will also see new space. Russia has become a top player followed the Ukraine.

According to C&W, investor interest in shopping centers was strong in 2007 and volumes achieved those of 2006. But there has been a pause in investor activity during the first quarter of 2008 due to the credit crunch. Cost and availability will be a large factor the coming days.

Cooling the Tubes

The London Underground is exploring ways to cool tube trains by power recycled from the office developments above them.

Transport for London (TfL) is searching for ways to reduce the intense heat on the underground, which can reach 37 degrees Celsius (98.6 degrees F) in summer. The Mayor's agecies are developing plans plans that could lead to power being generated for redevelopments at King’s Cross, Euston, and Waterloo stations.

The TfL is looking into systems based on trigeneration, which uses excess hot water from combined   heat and power plants to power the cooling process. It could also be possible to use excess air-conditioning from large developments.

Air-conditioning systems work more efficiently when on full power, so excess "coolth" could be sent underground.

These latest ideas come in addition to plans unveiled last summer by TfL to generate ice under passenger seats on deep tube trains. The tube is also investing in using cold water from aquifers and underground rivers to cool stations.

Expanding Monaco Looks to the Seas

Monaco has run out of space, says The Guardian reporter Angelique Chrisafis. Prince Albert II is spearheading a questionable project to expand Monaco's less than one square mile location by expanding a new district into the sea.

Replicating Dubai's ambitious artificial islands, it will be a world landmark, designed to jut out from the shore on stilts, inspired by the design of oil rigs, which could set a precedent for coastal expansion elsewhere.

The project will take ten years to build and will enable Monaco to boost its 33,000-strong population. The new neighborhood plan boasts sustainability using ten times less energy than a normal district.

However, some environmentalists on the Cote d'Azur say the unprecedented move risks irreparably damaging marine flora and fauna, warning that disturbing the coral and Mediterranean sea plants like Posidonia oceanica could prove disastrous.

Prince Albert II is holding the environment in high regard as he has tried to put Monaco on the map with environmental measures by introducing car-sharing schemes for workers, drives an electric car, and set up an eco-foundation.

Although Chrisafis reports that Robert Calcagno, Monaco's councilor for the environment who also confers with the Prince, argued that the project was being developed so carefully that it would boost marine life.

Calcagno adds that the development would not be built over areas that were home to coral and sea-plants. Instead a zone had been chosen where "nothing remarkable" grows.

Going Green

London's Mayor, Ken Livingstone, plans to cut carbon emissions in the city by 60 percent by 2025. The mayor announced a Climate Change Action Plan, backed up by a budget of $90 million.

In a broadcast aired on NPR yesterday, Livingstone said that he would attack the problem on several fronts: a green homes program with reduced-cost wall insulation; a green business program to encourage conservation; a green energy program to change how energy is generated and supplied; and a green transport program to encourage fuel-efficient cars and public transportation.

This is quite an ambitious undertaking and one that deserves serious consideration as a model for the U.S. to emulate. Mayor Fenty (the newly-elected mayor of Washington, D.C.), what say you?

Hitting the open road in West London

Driving will be a guilty pleasure in West London today as the capital's Mayor Ken Livingstone forges ahead with plans to increase the congestion charging zone in London.

Beginning yesterday, the Western Extension of the congestion charging zone will double the size of the fee-paying area of the U.K. capital to cover most of central West London including up market districts such as Kensington, Chelsea and Belgravia. Many drivers will abandon their vehicles for public transport to avoid the £8 ($15) daily fee to enter the zone.

When the first zone was introduced in 2003, Central London provided a post-apocalyptic vision as pedestrians roamed the traffic-free streets during the usually busy morning rush hour. However, traffic crept back as drivers adjusted to the daily charge and its introduction resulted in an estimated 20% reduction in vehicles on roads in the zone. Around £120m a year is raised through the charge, of which the majority is ploughed back into more buses for the capital to take the pressure of the tube system. The charge has also encouraged many residents to get back on their bicycles.

Young Leaders in Paris

More than 100 Young Leaders packed the room at the ULI Paris Conference for their own afternoon of programming.

The event attracted attendees from right across Europe and the Middle East including Russia, Germany, Turkey, the U.K. and Dubai and was the first time the Young Leaders have had a pan-European meeting.

David Lunts, executive director for policy and partnerships at the Greater London Authority, addressed attendees on the benefits and challenges of tall buildings while Mark Cooper, group editor of EuroProperty, spoke on how he sets the news agenda for the European property market.

The afternoon also included "info-bursts" on topics such as Shariah investing, green buildings, alternative investments and hot and cold Spots in Europe to ensure the Young Leaders were up-to-date on the latest topics.

The event ended with an inspiring speech by Pen Hadow, a polar explorer who was the first man to sledge to the North Pole without outside help. His remarkable feat provided food for thought for Young Leaders on topics such as leadership and reaching personal goals.

It also put in perspective the short journey in the cold Paris night to a local bar where Young Leaders later gathered to enjoy the city's hospitality.

Challenging the World Order

Did you think you had the current world order set? Asia will lead with its fast-growing and exciting economies; the U.S. will remain strong and steady while Europe will lag as expected from the "Old World"?

Will Hutton, chief executive, The Work Foundation and former editor of U.K. newspaper The Observer, challenged this conventional wisdom with a provocative address at the ULI conference in Paris this week.

The growth of Asia, he said, was attractive but had profound problems which will limit its potential such as the risk of political instability in India and China. Meanwhile, U.S. growth was unsustainable with the country in denial about its problems such as personal debt levels which could leave the country unable to drive the economy forward through consumer spending.

Finally, Europe, he predicted will be a safe and growing haven helped by Germany, which has been "written off as the place not to be and it may just be the place to be."

One of the underlying trends of this analysis was what Hutton termed "enlightenment infrastructure," which represented an economies' approach to factors such as entrepreneurship, competition, research and development, and education.

China, for example, remained a "party state" and capitalism would have difficulty overriding a culture which would struggle to adjust to an era of entrepreneurship and competition when one third of enterprise remained state owned.

This compared to some European models where the competitive spirit was high, commitment was good to education and research and development was ripe to grow. In Germany, the low consumer indebtedness means that there was scope for a sustained consumer boom. However, Europe still had drawbacks such as low population growth and over regulated financial systems.

The U.S. had strong enlightenment infrastructure but in some cases this was starting to undermine its success. For example, merger activity represented 10% of GDP which bought about a "fear in middle class America" as restructuring and redundancy fears hung over the population.