Demographics of the Next Decade Will Transform New Housing and Retail

This post was written for The Ground Floor by Robert Krueger, communications associate with the Urban Land Institute.

SAN FRANCISCO -- There is no doubt that the big question at this year’s ULI Fall Meeting is what the U.S. and international markets will look like once the recession is over. For those in the industry, they realize that this economic downturn is uncharted territory and uncertainty for the future leads to many unanswered questions. A session panel focused specifically on the next decade and the implications that changing demographics will have on commercial real estate and land use patterns. Specifically, the panel answered the question of how people of the next decade will live, play, and shop.

The panel discussed two main demographic groups that will drive the next decade’s housing market: Generation Y and their parents (the aging baby boomers). As one panelist, Deborah L. Brett, president of Deborah L. Brett & Associates, stated that the demand from these two generations will determine the location of housing and heavily influence the success of retail and office space. 

James H. Johnson, director of the Urban Investment Strategies Center at the University of North Carolina, got more specific by addressing what he called 'disruptive demographics."”  With this, Johnson referred to changing demographics that are seriously altering real estate development and needs that have been in place for over a generation.

"The browning and graying America will transform all of our political and economic institutions, but especially real estate," said Johnson. "Increased minorities, immigrants, and seniors make up this package."

Brett pointed to the implications of these two generations as well as other statistics that are changing the market.  These include:

• Little or no growth in purchasing power due to the expectation of continued stagnation of household income over the next decade.

• Changes in the work place, such as delayed retirement, working from home, and computer based virtual meetings instead in-person less business travel.

• Greater diversity in housing since there are more single households, nontraditional households comprised of multiple roommates, and more minority and immigrant groups.

Will commercial real estate be in a position to handle these changes? In a publication released at the Fall Meeting, Five ULI Fellows Present Ideas for the Next Years, ULI senior resident fellow John McIlwain, said that these two groups and other changing demographics "will bring long-term growth to cities and help redevelop town centers. The bad news is that it is unlikely that enough new housing can be built in urban areas to meet this growing demand.  The result is likely to be rising urban housing costs--good for developers and owners and bad for homebuyers and renters with limited funds."